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Have you watched a game and wondered if the Wrong Team Won? If the stats didn't show up in the final score? If cooking sherry can be drunk without the cooking part? Our bold adventurer Tim Andy is here to answer all of these questions and more.
THE WEEK THAT WAS: Week Seven
- PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
- Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
- Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
- EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
- Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.
Notes: My comments have been less than well received. Not that I blame the readers. I'm trying to craft a style that isn't just stating the obvious. This week I have some help from guest commentator Mike Q.
Baltimore at Buffalo
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Baltimore |
30% |
17% |
5.2 |
69 |
35% |
5% |
4.8 |
84 |
16 |
| Buffalo |
41% |
6% |
3.1 |
67 |
48% |
12% |
7.0 |
88 |
21 |
Impression: go figure. Trent Edwards spends a few years getting sacked and injured at Stanford. Moves to the NFL and life gets much, much easier?
Mike: The Bills could be 4-2 at this point if it wasn’t for the last second field-goal by Denver and that ridiculous comeback by the Cowboys. The Ravens offense is in trouble. Weird ending to the game, the Ravens are down 5 with 8 seconds left, Buffalo punts and the return man Figurs calls for a fair catch, then muffs it, and the clock runs out. Wouldn’t you think that a return would have a better chance of scoring then a 70 yard hail-mary or hook-and-ladder?!
Minnesota at Dallas
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Minnesota |
36% |
20% |
4.7 |
88 |
18% |
9% |
3.0 |
50 |
6 |
| Dallas |
51% |
10% |
4.4 |
100 |
59% |
5% |
6.0 |
119 |
39 |
Impression: game should not have been close at all. Dallas separating from the rest of the NFC.
Mike: Tavaris Jackson has completed less then 40 percent of his passes the past 2 weeks, so the Cowboys decided not to honor the pass in the 2nd half and shutdown Taylor and Peterson, who flourished in the first half. Great new for Vikings fans, Jackson has a fractured finger.
Tampa Bay at Detroit
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Tampa Bay |
59% |
15% |
3.8 |
88 |
68% |
4% |
6.3 |
124 |
28 |
| Detroit |
76% |
24% |
6.6 |
161 |
52% |
0% |
6.0 |
100 |
41 |
Impression: a fumble for TD wiped out by instant replay and the Bucs never recovered.
Mike: A blocked punt and a fumble lead to 10 first quarter points for Detroit and they played downhill from there. Garcia later mishandled a snap at the goal line. Detroit didn’t really win this game as much as the Bucs just lost it; the Lions only had 2 decent drives in this game. Tampa Bay pulled off the ‘Waterboy’ on-side kick, kicking it hard directly at one of the Lions players and recovering the ricochet.
Tennessee at Houston
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Tennessee |
41% |
5% |
3.9 |
71 |
54% |
7% |
6.6 |
118 |
33 |
| Houston |
16% |
17% |
3.2 |
33 |
42% |
9% |
6.5 |
95 |
10 |
Impression: a strange game but the Titans should not have let the Texans back in it.
Mike: The Titans were winning 32-7 to begin the 4th quarter and had to kick a field goal with no time left to win. The Titans may have let the Texans come back at the end, but the lead was built on the efforts of the defense.
New England at Miami
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| New England |
40% |
9% |
3.8 |
72 |
70% |
17% |
12.6 |
210 |
55 |
| Miami |
56% |
17% |
5.5 |
123 |
48% |
2% |
4.8 |
90 |
28 |
Impression: Oh man this was over fast.
Mike: A ridiculous game for Brady, he threw 4 touchdowns passes before throwing an incomplete pass. You gotta love Bill Belichick, when asked why he put Brady back in in the 4th quarter up 21 points, “we’re just trying to win the game.” Ronnie Brown is out for the season, Brian Brohm can start looking at houses in South Beach.
San Francisco at NY Giants
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| San Francisco |
52% |
16% |
4.8 |
78 |
37% |
4% |
3.4 |
52 |
3 |
| NY Giants |
66% |
17% |
4.7 |
123 |
51% |
3% |
4.3 |
78 |
33 |
Impression: 49ers running on fumes. 2-14 seems possible except they get to play the Rams again.
Mike: The Giants are playing great football right now, they have balance on the offense and their defense is playing lights out. The 49ers on the other hand are hurting, they can’t move the ball at all, I’m not sure what the problem is.
Atlanta at New Orleans
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Atlanta |
33% |
8% |
2.7 |
54 |
45% |
9% |
5.8 |
93 |
13 |
| New Orleans |
50% |
5% |
3.7 |
86 |
44% |
9% |
6.4 |
99 |
30 |
Impression: the wrong team covered. Saints are only 2 games out of the wildcard spot so maybe they can make a run?
Mike: For the 2nd straight week, I think that the opposing team has more to do with how good the Saints looked then what the Saints were doing. Reggie Bush bulled his way in to the end-zone for the go ahead touchdown.
Arizona at Washington
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Arizona |
30% |
3% |
2.8 |
46 |
47% |
9% |
6.0 |
86 |
22 |
| Washington |
39% |
4% |
2.2 |
57 |
31% |
5% |
4.5 |
36 |
3 |
Impression: THE WRONG TEAM WON! This season teams that won when they lost on the stats score are 3-7 against the spread the next week. Teams that lost when they won the stats score are 2-7!!! Go against Washington this week perhaps?
Mike: Kurt Warner played this game with a torn elbow ligament, shades of Steve DeBerg, and nearly led the Cards back from down 2 touchdowns in the 4th quarter. Washington almost suffers yet another 2nd half meltdown.
NY Jets at Cincinnati
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| NY Jets |
28% |
8% |
3.1 |
52 |
60% |
14% |
7.9 |
137 |
23 |
| Cincinnati |
59% |
10% |
3.9 |
100 |
66% |
13% |
10.0 |
154 |
50 |
Impression: Jets are u-g-l-y they ain't got no alibi.
Mike: Two of the worst defenses in the league did their best to lose the game for their team, the Bengals D in the first half, and the Jets D in the second half. The Jets D ultimately did the better job of being horrible, allowing the Bengals to convert 7 of 10 third downs, a week after they only converted 1 of 11.
Kansas City at Oakland
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Kansas City |
40% |
3% |
4.2 |
80 |
26% |
9% |
4.8 |
50 |
10 |
| Oakland |
16% |
8% |
1.7 |
29 |
40% |
9% |
6.7 |
78 |
13 |
Impression: the WRONG TEAM WON! Go against Raiders this week?
Mike: I was so bored watching this game that I didn’t really take anything away from it. I’m hearing really good things about the Chiefs defense though.
Chicago at Philadelphia
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Chicago |
32% |
0% |
2.0 |
28 |
52% |
12% |
7.3 |
123 |
18 |
| Philadelphia |
50% |
13% |
3.9 |
87 |
51% |
7% |
5.4 |
107 |
31 |
Impression: the WRONG TEAM WON! go against Eagles and Bears this week?
Mike: Neither team deserved to win this game, but Philly ultimately showed that they deserved it less by allowing Brian Griese to go 97 yards in under 2 minutes, with no timeouts and no communication with the sideline, for the go-ahead touchdown. Weekly note to Andy Reid: run the ball.
St. Louis at Seattle
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| St. Louis |
41% |
12% |
3.1 |
76 |
39% |
8% |
3.5 |
50 |
3 |
| Seattle |
33% |
9% |
2.7 |
54 |
41% |
3% |
5.2 |
91 |
23 |
Impression: Rams are B-A-D Bad. Alexander is fantasy flop of the year.
Mike: Probably the most least impressive 27 point win that I’ve seen. Bulger committed 5 turnovers but he can hardly be blamed, the St. Louis offensive line is a mess. You have to give the Rams some credit, 5 of their 7 opponents have winning records and the Rams have been in every game going in to the 2nd half, they’ve just sustained too many injuries. Look for the ‘hawks to struggle more on offense, their running game is a joke; have you seen Alexander run lately?!...he literally takes a seat as he’s being tackled!
Pittsburgh at Denver
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Pittsburgh |
48% |
16% |
4.4 |
76 |
53% |
7% |
6.2 |
109 |
24 |
| Denver |
41% |
4% |
3.7 |
66 |
61% |
6% |
7.4 |
119 |
29 |
Impression: what a difference a day makes. Two weeks and a bye. Steelers quality of opponent is low.
Mike: I’m not sure what made less sense, the Steelers deciding they couldn’t run against the worst rush defense in the league OR 325 lb Casey Hampton deciding to “spy” on Jay Cutler on one pass play, to keep him from scrambling, and then letting Cutler run by him as if he was standing still (Cutler went for 31 yards on that play and set-up a TD for the 14-7 lead).
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Indianapolis |
48% |
12% |
4.0 |
103 |
48% |
8% |
6.2 |
87 |
29 |
| Jacksonville |
57% |
12% |
4.3 |
107 |
41% |
2% |
2.9 |
43 |
8 |
Impression: Colts-Patriots on a collision course in the post-season.
Mike: I’m very impressed with the Colts ability to play smash-mouth football with such a physical team. People think of the Colts as a finesse team, but they can play tough, and I think that gives them a slight advantage versus the Pats.
Also see:
- Week That Was: Week Six
- Week That Was: Week Five
- Week That Was: Week Four
- Week That Was: Week Three
- Week That Was: Week Two
- Week That Was: Week One
Also See:
Straight-up quick picks
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