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Have you watched a game and wondered if the Wrong Team Won? If the stats didn't show up in the final score? If cooking sherry can be drunk without the cooking part? Our bold adventurer Tim Andy is here to answer all of these questions and more.
THE WEEK THAT WAS: Week Eight
- PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
- Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
- Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
- EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
- Stats Score: This is the projected score the TMW computer would have spit out if the stats for the game were the numbers coming in. This column lets us know who "should" have won.
Notes: My comments have been less than well received. Not that I blame the readers. I'm trying to craft a style that isn't just stating the obvious. This week I have some help from guest commentator Mike Q.
Indianapolis at Carolina
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Indianapolis |
59% |
9% |
4.0 |
100 |
45% |
15% |
8.4 |
136 |
39 |
| Carolina |
43% |
7% |
3.1 |
66 |
45% |
2% |
4.2 |
72 |
12 |
Impression: Colts-Patriots by far the best teams
Mike: The Panthers had early control of this game, but the offense got it in gear and the Colts defense shut down the running game of the Panthers in the second half, holding them to 40 yards (21 by Carr). The Colts aren’t the flashiest team in the league, they play hard and disciplined and they keep it simple. While that’s a great formula against most teams, I think the Colts will struggle against the dynamic Patriots.
Detroit at Chicago
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Detroit |
33% |
15% |
4.4 |
81 |
51% |
15% |
7.2 |
124 |
32 |
| Chicago |
36% |
5% |
2.3 |
63 |
43% |
2% |
4.8 |
45 |
6 |
Impression: Bears problems are more than just Grossman
Mike: The Bears got 3 chances to score in the 4th quarter, and Griese threw an INT each time, twice in the red-zone. Ron Turner, the Bears offensive coordinator, likes to take advantage of mismatches in opportune times, but he tried to attack CB Keith Smith over the top in the shortened field and the safety had time to come over and intercept 3 times in the corner of the end zone.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Pittsburgh |
41% |
13% |
4.8 |
80 |
57% |
11% |
8.5 |
146 |
39 |
| Cincinnati |
57% |
10% |
4.3 |
95 |
58% |
3% |
6.6 |
116 |
30 |
Impression: Bengals most disappointing team of 2007?
Mike: In the first half the Bengals had 1st down in the red-zone twice, each time they had a run stuffed behind the line of scrimmage, and each time they had to settle for a field goal. Meanwhile, the Steelers scored 3 straight touchdowns and were up 21-6 at halftime, game over. No teams play as well with a lead, eating up the clock, and only allowing Cincinnati 6 drives the whole game. Don’t expect a much different result for the Bengals next week in Buffalo.
NY Giants at Miami
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| NY Giants |
58% |
15% |
4.2 |
97 |
30% |
12% |
3.2 |
69 |
14 |
| Miami |
53% |
11% |
3.4 |
82 |
43% |
6% |
4.3 |
96 |
27 |
Impression: THE WRONG TEAM WON!
Mike: There isn’t a special formula you need to be able to beat the Dolphins these days, just don’t make a ton of mistakes. The Giants didn’t have a lot of success passing in this game so they just ran the ball, and that was it. The Dolphins are just plain ugly, maybe they should make an effort to not draft guys that don’t know that they speak English in London.
Philadelphia at Minnesota
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Philadelphia |
44% |
0% |
2.3 |
56 |
55% |
15% |
8.7 |
157 |
42 |
| Minnesota |
29% |
7% |
3.3 |
55 |
44% |
6% |
4.8 |
100 |
15 |
Impression: Eagles may yet find their way to playoffs
Mike: The Eagles inability to run effectively made this a closer game then what it should have been, allowing the Vikings to stay in this game until the end. The Eagles did the same with the Bears and Packers and ended up losing those games; good luck running that same game plan vs the Cowboys next week.
Cleveland at St. Louis
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Cleveland |
51% |
14% |
4.2 |
100 |
62% |
15% |
8.7 |
148 |
45 |
| St. Louis |
41% |
4% |
3.2 |
62 |
57% |
14% |
7.9 |
130 |
26 |
Impression: Browns legit, Rams not
Mike: The game started out the way the season should have for the Rams, Bulger was throwing deep to Holt, Jackson ripped off a 22 yard run and a touchdown, and the Rams were quickly up 14-0. Then Jackson got hurt again, Bulger had to leave for a couple of series, they lost another offensive lineman, and the paper bag hats came out in the less then capacity crowd. The Cleveland defense came up big at the end of the game, stopping the Rams on 4th down and intercepting a pass to end their final 2 drives. Good news for Rams fans, it’s the bye week!
Oakland at Tennessee
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Oakland |
34% |
7% |
2.3 |
37 |
26% |
5% |
3.7 |
42 |
3 |
| Tennessee |
45% |
17% |
5.2 |
91 |
35% |
0% |
0.9 |
35 |
20 |
Impression: Titans win ugly again
Mike: Tennessee had only 26 yards passing and they won the game! It’s amazing how easy it can be to win a game when you dominate the offensive and defensive lines. On the other hand, it’s easy to lose a game when you commit 14 penalties.
Buffalo at NY Jets
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Buffalo |
54% |
3% |
3.0 |
80 |
60% |
4% |
9.0 |
132 |
37 |
| NY Jets |
54% |
9% |
4.3 |
81 |
40% |
6% |
4.5 |
65 |
10 |
Impression: Bills rallying around rookie QB Trent Edwards
Mike: I’ve never seen so many check-down passes. The Bills and the Jets are both trying to play ball-control offense, except that Buffalo is dedicated to running the ball. What’s funny is that Losman came in for an injured Trent Edwards and threw 5 passes, 2 of which went 50 yards in the air, 1 was incomplete and the other went for an 85 yard TD. If Denver doesn’t hit a last second FG and Dallas doesn’t recover an on-side kick, this Buffalo team would be 5-2. What’s even more amazing is that the Jets are 1-7 and aren’t in last place.
Houston at San Diego
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Houston |
50% |
11% |
4.1 |
92 |
52% |
6% |
5.5 |
79 |
16 |
| San Diego |
48% |
8% |
4.4 |
88 |
41% |
25% |
10.6 |
166 |
49 |
Impression: Chargers coming to play now after slow start to season
Mike: Some weird stats for this game considering the actual score. I would have expected to see some big numbers from SD, but they only rushed L.T. 17 times and Rivers put up only 11 passes. Basically the Chargers put together a 35-3 lead at half on some big plays and then put it in cruise control the rest of the game, unlike what New England did.
Jacksonville at Tampa Bay
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Jacksonville |
35% |
5% |
3.2 |
54 |
31% |
5% |
4.0 |
84 |
13 |
| Tampa Bay |
55% |
17% |
5.3 |
94 |
33% |
13% |
5.3 |
68 |
20 |
Impression: THE WRONG TEAM WON!
Mike: The game of the week in my eyes. Jacksonville ran the ball nearly the whole game, only passing once in the 1st quarter, but got some key passes out of Gray when they needed it. Jeff Garcia is a warrior, and he did everything he could to will his team to victory, including getting his helmet knocked off on one scramble. Jacksonville is very tough to beat when they limit their mistakes.
Washington at New England
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Washington |
46% |
0% |
2.6 |
60 |
45% |
5% |
4.0 |
76 |
13 |
| New England |
60% |
12% |
4.4 |
112 |
65% |
9% |
7.4 |
154 |
46 |
Impression: Oh dear. You should have kicked the FG Bill.
Mike: The Redskins have one of the best defenses in the league, and they got shredded! Watching the first New England drive was amazing, nearly every play worked perfectly, and it had everything to do with the great job this offensive line is doing. The Patriots punted twice in this game, and one of them was at the end of the game with the 3rd string QB in. My favorite part of the game is when the Pats were up 38-0, with the ball in the red-zone, and they were called for a false start and Brady barks out “son of a b@#$h”, as if it kept them from tying the game or something! Then they wind up with 4th and 1 and they go for it!
New Orleans at San Francisco
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| New Orleans |
44% |
7% |
3.3 |
65 |
60% |
15% |
9.1 |
168 |
40 |
| San Francisco |
42% |
5% |
3.9 |
42 |
43% |
2% |
4.1 |
80 |
13 |
Impression: 49ers on 2-14 path
Mike: The 49ers are hurting on offense. They can’t run the ball, they can’t pass the ball, and it’s not like the Saints did anything special on defense. The Saints on the other hand are starting to click, and a large part of that is due to their offensive line, which hasn’t allowed a sack in the last 4 games.
Green Bay at Denver
| Matchup |
Rush PSR |
Rush Big |
Rush Yds |
Rush EFR |
Pass PSR |
Pass Big |
Pass Yds |
Pass EFR |
Stats Score |
| Green Bay |
59% |
4% |
4.1 |
81 |
58% |
10% |
10.8 |
155 |
45 |
| Denver |
45% |
4% |
3.6 |
66 |
45% |
10% |
6.3 |
114 |
20 |
Impression: Game turned on Denver fumble at GB 1-yd line
Mike: I told you! God is a Packers fan! Only God could let the Broncos come down the field to tie it, with the special teams unit scrambling on to the field, just so that he could watch Brett Favre throw a bomb in OT and watch him run down the field and celebrate with his teammates.
Also see:
- Week That Was: Week Seven
- Week That Was: Week Six
- Week That Was: Week Five
- Week That Was: Week Four
- Week That Was: Week Three
- Week That Was: Week Two
- Week That Was: Week One
Also See:
Straight-up quick picks
Spread quick picks
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